Q1 2026 Luxury Market Data Highlights
The Upstate South Carolina luxury median sale price reached $1.2 million in Q1 2026, up 9% year over year. Months of inventory in the $1M+ segment climbed to 6.4, crossing into buyer's market territory for the first time since the pandemic. Over 51% of luxury transactions were all-cash, insulating this segment from mortgage rate sensitivity. The luxury sale-to-list ratio stands at 96.5%. South Carolina's new bill to push toward a 1.99%-0% income tax, is expected to accelerate wealth migration into the state. South Carolina is #1 in per-capita net migration, and Greenville ranked #3 most-searched relocation city in the U.S.
Published by Damian Hall Group | Blackstream | Christie's International Real Estate
Data sources: GGAR MLS / ShowingTime, Redfin Q4 2025 Luxury Report, U.S. Census Bureau, Western Upstate MLS, Lake Keowee Real Estate Pro, Bankrate, Americans for Tax Reform
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The Market: Greenville and Upstate SC
Overall Market: Greenville County (2025 Full Year)
Greenville County recorded 17,869 closed sales in 2025, up 8.5% from 16,463 the prior year. The median sale price rose modestly to $319,900 (+1.7% YoY), while the average sale price climbed to $397,877 (+3.6%). Inventory expanded sharply, reaching 5,309 units by December 2025, a 26% increase year-over-year, yet months of supply remained at just 3.6, keeping the overall market in seller's territory.
Downtown Greenville averaged $823,320 per home (+9.3% YoY). Travelers Rest saw a 22.3% surge in total sales. Anderson County's average price jumped 22.1% to $331,944.
Luxury Segment: $1M+Luxury real estate is no longer local.
The luxury tier tells a different story. The median luxury sale price reached $1.2 million (+9% YoY), with an average of $1.6 million. At 6.4 months of inventory, the $1M+ segment crossed into buyer's market territory for the first time in the post-pandemic era. The luxury sale-to-list ratio stands at 96.5%, indicating room for negotiation.
Greenville County Market Data (2025 vs. 2024):
- Closed Sales: 17,869 (2025) vs. 16,463 (2024), +8.5%
- Median Sale Price: $319,900 vs. $314,500, +1.7%
- Average Sale Price: $397,877 vs. $384,066, +3.6%
- Days on Market: 53 vs. 49, +8.2%
- Inventory (Dec): 5,309 vs. 4,212, +26.0%
- Months of Supply: 3.6 vs. 3.0, +20.0%
- % of List Price Received: 98.3% vs. 98.4%, -0.1pp
Data: GGAR MLS / ShowingTime, Nest Realty 2025 Annual Report, Will Sawyer Mid-Year 2025
Lake Keowee and the Ultra-Luxury Tier
Lake Keowee Lakefront Market
Lake Keowee's lakefront segment continues to command premium pricing. The median sale price reached $1,712,500 in August 2025, up 14.4% year-over-year. The average lakefront sale price sits at $2.3 million, with a list-to-sold ratio of 94.1%. Inventory has doubled to 105 active listings, pushing months of supply to 8.8, firmly in buyer's market territory. Average days on market: 108.
Top 5 Luxury Sales: Greenville Metro 2025
1. 473 Peninsula Rdg, Sunset - $10,099,000 (Lake Keowee / Oconee Co.)
2. 425 Peninsula Rdg, Sunset - $9,369,000 (Lake Keowee / Oconee Co.)
3. 113 Waterfern Ct, Six Mile - $6,100,000 (Pickens Co. / Lake area)
4. 129 Leaping Brook Way, Six Mile - $5,850,000 (Pickens Co. / Lake area)
5. 354 Peninsula Rdg, Sunset - $5,250,000 (Lake Keowee / Oconee Co.)
Data: Lake Keowee Real Estate Pro, Stacker / Redfin Most Expensive Homes Sold 2025
Western Upstate: Anderson, Oconee and Pickens
Market-wide inventory in the Western Upstate MLS region surged 43.8% YoY by December 2025. The $750K to $1M segment showed the strongest momentum, with pending sales up 18-30% through the fall. Properties priced above $1 million averaged 88 days on market.
Data: Western Upstate MLS, Dec 2025
The Migration Advantage
South Carolina: #1 Per-Capita Growth
South Carolina recorded the largest net migration gain per 10,000 residents in the United States in 2025, nearly +80 new residents per 10,000 existing residents. The state added 66,622 net domestic migrants, ranking #3 nationally behind only North Carolina and Texas. Greenville ranked the #3 most-searched relocation city in the U.S.
Historic Tax Reform: H.4216
On March 11, 2026, the South Carolina House passed H.4216, sending the bill to Governor McMaster's desk for expected signature. The legislation moves SC from a progressive top rate of 6.0% to a 1.99% flat rate within five years, the lowest flat income tax rate in the nation, with a path to full elimination.
State Tax and Migration Comparison:
- California: 13.30% income tax, Major outflow (-229K)
- New York: 10.90%, Major outflow (-138K)
- New Jersey: 10.75%, Outflow (8th consecutive yr)
- South Carolina: 6.0% moving to 1.99% flat, #1 per capita inbound
- North Carolina: 4.25% (moving to 3.99%), #1 net domestic
- Tennessee: 0%, Top inbound
- Florida: 0%, Major inbound (decelerating)
- Texas: 0%, Major inbound (decelerating)
Data: ACSC Gov / NY Post Jan 2026, U.S. Census Bureau via NAR Feb 2026, MoveBuddha / KW Greenville 2025, Americans for Tax Reform March 2026
Cash Buyers Insulate the Luxury Market
More than 40% of all $1M+ purchases nationally were all-cash in H1 2025; above $2 million, cash's share exceeded 50%. Among luxury property specialists surveyed, 96% report steady or increasing all-cash activity, and 51% saw more cash transactions in 2025 than the prior year.
Data: Scotsman Guide Oct 2025, Elite Residence Intl / ILHM
Development Pipeline and What's Ahead
Major Developments Underway
Greenville's downtown development pipeline exceeds $2 billion in combined active projects. Key developments include:
- County Square: $1.1B investment, 1,800 residential units, 3M sq ft mixed-use, phased through 2027+
- Gracie Plaza: ~$130M, 327 units in two towers (29 and 24 stories), 2026-2027
- Biltmore Walk: 44 luxury townhomes, construction started Nov 2025
- The McDaniel: 30 downtown luxury condos, first units late summer 2026
- Markley + Main: ~$100M, 277 units, 6-story mixed-use, move-ins summer 2027
Data: UBJ / Greater GVL Area Homes Nov-Dec 2025
Q2 2026 Outlook
Pricing: Home prices are expected to rise 2-4% modestly in 2026, with luxury appreciation potentially outpacing the broader market as migration-driven demand meets limited premium inventory.
Inventory: Forecast to increase 5-10%, providing more buyer selection, particularly above $1M where months of supply have already crossed the six-month threshold.
Rates: Mortgage rates are projected to hover 6.0-6.8% throughout 2026, but the luxury segment's high cash-buyer concentration limits rate sensitivity.
Tax reform tailwind: H.4216's passage is expected to amplify SC's already-dominant migration advantage, particularly for high-net-worth relocators comparing SC to FL, TN, and TX.
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About Damian Hall Group
Damian Hall Group is powered by Blackstream | Christie's International Real Estate. Damian Hall is a luxury real estate advisor specializing in Greenville luxury real estate, Lake Keowee waterfront homes, and properties within The Cliffs communities of South Carolina.
Hall is known for representing high-end homes, golf community estates, lakefront properties, and equestrian farms across the Carolinas. His innovative marketing strategies, cinematic property videography, and national buyer outreach have positioned him among the leading luxury real estate advisors in the region.
The Luxury Intelligence Briefing is published quarterly by Damian Hall Group, tracking the $1M+ residential segment across Greenville, Spartanburg, Anderson, Pickens, and Oconee counties.
Data Sources: GGAR MLS / ShowingTime, Nest Realty 2025 Annual Report, Western Upstate MLS, Lake Keowee Real Estate Pro, Redfin Q4 2025 Luxury Report, Realtor.com Luxury Reports, Institute for Luxury Home Marketing, U.S. Census Bureau, NAR Economists Outlook, United Van Lines National Movers Study, Bankrate, Americans for Tax Reform, Scotsman Guide, Coldwell Banker Global Luxury, Sotheby's International Realty 2026 Outlook.
For media inquiries, expert commentary, or to receive future editions, contact Damian Hall Group directly.
damianhallgroup.com | [email protected]
Frequently Asked Questions:
Greenville Luxury Real Estate Market Q1 2026
What is the median luxury home price in Greenville SC in 2026?
The median luxury sale price in the Upstate South Carolina $1M+ market reached $1.2 million in Q1 2026, up 9% year over year, with an average sale price of $1.6 million.
Is Greenville SC a buyer's or seller's market in 2026?
The overall Greenville market remains in seller's territory at 3.6 months of supply. However, the luxury segment ($1M+) has crossed into buyer's market territory at 6.4 months of supply, the first time since the pandemic.
What percentage of luxury home buyers in Greenville pay cash?
Over 51% of luxury transactions in the Upstate are all-cash. Nationally, above $2 million, cash's share exceeds 50%. This insulates the luxury market from mortgage rate fluctuations.
How much are Lake Keowee waterfront homes?
The Lake Keowee lakefront median sale price reached $1,712,500 as of August 2025, up 14.4% year over year. The average lakefront sale price sits at $2.3 million. Inventory has doubled to 105 active listings with 8.8 months of supply.
Why are people moving to Greenville SC?
South Carolina recorded the largest net migration gain per capita in the U.S. in 2025. Greenville ranked #3 most-searched relocation city nationally. Buyers are attracted by quality of life, lower taxes (SC's new 1.99% flat income tax is the lowest in the nation), controlled growth, and access to mountain and lake communities.
What is the most expensive home sold in the Greenville area?
The most expensive sale in the Greenville metro in 2025 was 473 Peninsula Ridge in Sunset (Lake Keowee) at $10,099,000. Four of the top five luxury sales were Lake Keowee or lake-area properties.
How long does it take to sell a luxury home in Greenville?
In the broader market, days on market averaged 53 in 2025. In the luxury segment, timelines are longer. Lake Keowee lakefront properties averaged 108 days on market. Properties above $1M in the Western Upstate averaged 88 days.
What is SC House Bill H.4216?
H.4216 is historic tax reform legislation passed by the South Carolina House on March 11, 2026. It moves SC from a progressive top income tax rate of 6.0% to a 1.99% flat rate within five years, making it the lowest flat income tax in the nation, with a path to full elimination. This is expected to accelerate wealth migration into the state.